In a study in which 78 healthy elders were given 5 different tests and then tested for cognitive performance 18 months later, two tests combined to correctly predict nearly 80% of those who developed significant cognitive decline. These tests were a blood test to identify presence of the ‘Alzheimer’s gene’ (APOE4), and a 5-minute fMRI imaging scan showing brain activity during mental tasks.

The gene test in itself correctly classified 61.5% of participants (aged 65-88; mean age 73), showing what a strong risk factor this is, but when taken with activity on the fMRI test, the two together correctly classified 78.9% of participants. Age, years of education, gender and family history of dementia were not accurate predictors of future cognitive decline. A smaller hippocampus was also associated with a greater risk of cognitive decline.

These two tests are readily available and not time-consuming, and may be useful in identifying those at risk of MCI and dementia.